Real Estate

Buying home, condo or any other real estate in a market that is protected from a bursting bubble is every investor’s dream. Knowing where to look for these bubble-proof markets and how to identify them is crucial.

There are some important factors that investors should consider when searching for stable investments such as single-family homes, condos or any other type of real estate. Some of these factors include a fast growing population (which positively impacts the demand for housing), a solid and diverse economy (which impacts employment rates and subsequent demand for housing), rising incomes (which impacts buyers’ ability to purchase real estate), a developing infrastructure (which contributes to the appeal of a city or community), and restrictions on future real estate development (which limits future supply of real estate). Investing in real estate within communities that meet these criteria may prove to be more profitable than communities that are missing one or more of these factors.

A recent report by Business 2.0 Magazine identified U.S. cities that have consistently demonstrated price appreciation in the real estate market. The October 2006 issue of the Magazine identified the top 5 real estate markets that demonstrated an upward price trend over a long period time. The top-ranking cities were:

1. San Francisco, California

2. Los Angeles, California

3. Seattle, Washington

4. Boston, Massachusetts

5. New York City, New York

San Francisco topped the list with an average annual home price appreciation of 4.2% from 1949 to 2006. In contrast, the national average was 2.3%. Strong restrictions on real estate development and a limited geography helped push San Francisco to the top slot.

Los Angeles ranked second in the report. The average annual home price appreciation in Los Angeles was 3.7% from 1949 to 2006. Reductions in available land and increasing restrictions on further development helped pushed Los Angeles to the number 2 slot.

Home prices in Seattle, which was third on the list, demonstrated an average appreciation rate of 3.2% from 1949 to 2006. While Seattle made the top 5 list, recent easing of building restrictions may cause Seattle to fall out of the top 5 over the next few years.

Boston was fourth in the rankings. The city has seen annual home prices appreciate by 3% over the period from 1949 to 2006. A strong increase in per capita income contributed to Boston’s high ranking.

New York City follows close behind with an average annual home price appreciation of 3% from 1949 to 2006. A limited geography, large population, and finite number of properties contributed to New York’s high ranking.

While there is no guarantee that any of the real estate markets listed previously are truly “bubble proof,” the factors described above may help investors find the profitable markets and avoid “bubble” markets. Since the real estate market is constantly changing, be sure to seek out the services of a skillful real estate agent to help you navigate your next real estate purchase.

The community of Clairemont (sometimes called Clairemont Mesa) is located in central San Diego County, California. The community is located off Interstate 5 at Balboa Ave and is within the 92117 Zip code.

The real estate and homes for sale in Clairemont fall into the moderate-income category for San Diego County. The number of homes sold in a particular year is relatively high. For example, during the period from January through July 2006, approximately 183 single-family homes sold. Approximately 226 homes sold for the same period in 2005.

One method to analyze pricing trends for a particular community is to evaluate the median and average price of homes for a particular month, and compare that data against the same period last year. What follows is a comparison of the median price and average price of homes for the past seven months (January through July 2006), compared against the data for the corresponding time period in 2005.

The median price of homes represents the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The average price of homes is calculated by adding up the sales price of all homes sold in a particular month, and dividing that value by the number of homes sold.

The median price of homes in July 2006 was $560,000, compared to $562,500 in July 2005, which represents a 0.9% drop. The average price of homes in July 2006 was $575,114, compared to $585,602 in July 2005, which represents a 2.4% drop. Approximately 21 homes sold in July 2006 and 26 in July 2005. The data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in July 2006 compared to the same period last year.

The median price of homes in June 2006 was $555,000, compared to $570,000 in June 2005, which represents a 2.6% drop. The average price of homes in June 2006 was $586,758, compared to $584,415 in June 2005, which represents a 0.4% increase. Approximately 30 homes sold in June 2006 and 34 in June 2005. The data for June 2006 was mixed, as median prices declined and average prices rose slightly from the same period last year.

The median price of homes in May 2006 was $550,000, compared to $562,000 in May 2005, which represents a 2.3% drop. The average price of homes in May 2006 was $584,012, compared to $582,000 in May 2005, which represents a 0.3% increase. Approximately 33 homes sold in May 2006 and 37 in May 2005. The data was mixed in June 2006, as median prices declined and average prices rose slightly from the same period last year.

The median price of homes in April 2006 was $564,000, compared to $565,000 in April 2005, which represents a 0.20% drop. The average price of homes in April 2006 was $584,722, compared to $612,897 in April 2005, which represents a 4.6% drop. Approximately 32 homes sold in April 2006 and 36 in April 2005. The data provides evidence that there was a downward price trend in April 2006 compared to the same period last year.

The median price of homes in March 2006 was $558,000, compared to $545,000 in March 2005, which represents a 1.5% increase. The average price of homes in March 2006 was $589,161, compared to $576,227 in March 2005, which represents a 3.60% increase. Approximately 29 homes sold in March 2006 and 39 in March 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in March 2006 compared to the same period last year.

The median price of homes in February 2006 was $560,000, compared to $525,000 in February 2005, which represents a 7.4% increase. The average price of homes in February 2006 was $582,435, compared to $571,708 in February 2005, which represents a 2.50% increase. Approximately 17 home sold in February 2006 and 29 in February 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in February 2006 compared to the same period last year.

The median price of homes was $585,000 in January 2006, compared to $525,000 in January 2005, which represents a 10% increase. The average price of homes in January 2006 was $634,524, compared to $542,708 in January 2005, which represents a 16.9% increase. Approximately 21 homes sold in January 2006 and 25 in January 2005. The data provides evidence that there was an upward price trend in January 2006 compared to the same period last year.

So what does the above data tell us? Overall, there was a 19% decline in the number of homes sold during this period from 2006 to 2005. The pricing trends early in the year (January, February and March) were in the upward direction for both median and average prices, which showed increases year-over-year ranging from 1.5% to 16.9%. However, since then, the pricing trend has been downward or mixed depending on the month. For example, April and July demonstrated downward median and average prices ranging from around half a percent up to 5%. For May and June, the median price was down around 2% from the previous year, and the average price was slightly up around half a percent. These findings suggest that at best, prices have leveled off, and at worst, are starting to decline. Continued monitoring of sale data in subsequent months is needed to identify enduring market trends.

Be sure to consult your Realtor on other factors that influence home pricing before buying or selling real estate in Clairemont.